I piani economici sudcoreani per la Corea del Nord.

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Attualità coreana, Corea del Nord, Corea del Sud, Economia coreana, Politica coreana, Relazioni internazionali

Il summit di vertice tra le due Coree dello scorso mese di aprile ha determinato un repentino cambio di passo nelle relazioni diplomatiche tra Pyongyang e Seoul. Se, in apparenza, la questione di fondo è rappresentata dalla denuclearizzazione della penisola, non sfugge che sia per il Nord che per il Sud, per motivi opposti ma complementari, un punto cardinale sia rappresentato dallo sviluppo economico e infrastrutturale della Corea del Nord. Si tratta di un approccio senz’altro di più basso profilo ma più pragmatico.

In questo post potete trovare una selezione di informazioni relative ai piani economici e infrastrutturali della Corea del Sud per lo sviluppo del Nord.

Durante il summit inter-coreano di fine aprile il Presidente sudcoreano Moon Jae In ha consegnato a Kim Jong Un una chiavetta USB contenente la visione di Seoul per lo sviluppo del Nord della penisola, secondo Hankyoreh:

South President Moon Jae-in ordered a joint inter-Korean research effort to examine future economic cooperation ahead of the anticipated lifting of international sanctions against North Korea following an upcoming North Korea-US summit, which will follow up the inter-Korean summit that was held on Apr. 27.

Speaking on Apr. 30 at the first Blue House senior secretaries’ and aides’ meeting since the inter-Korean summit, President Moon said he “look[ed] forward to us being able to carry out a joint inter-Korean research effort for implementation of the Oct. 4 Summit Declaration [of 2007] and inter-Korean economic cooperation,” a key Blue House official reported.“He was saying we need joint research to examine what kinds of economic cooperation the South and North can engage in ahead of [sanctions against North Korea] being lifted,” the official explained.

During their summit, President Moon also personally gave North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a pamphlet on his “new economic vision” and a USB device containing a presentation video, the Blue House reported.

The materials reportedly contained details on power plant construction and other economic cooperation measures that could be implemented once inter-Korean relations gain momentum and sanctions against North Korea are lifted. During the Apr. 30 meeting, President Moon described the Panmunjeom Declaration as “a peace declaration proclaiming to the world that there will be no more threat of war or nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.”

Il quotidiano cinese  South China Morning Post nota come il piano di Moon Jae In per la Corea del Nord si fonda principalmente su tre punti chiave:

President Moon Jae-in gave the North’s leader Kim Jong-un a USB drive containing a “New Economic Map of the Korean Peninsula” at the fortified border village of Panmunjom on April 27.
The initiative included three economic belts – one connecting the west coast of the peninsula to China, making the region a centre of logistics; one connecting the east coast to Russia for energy cooperation and one on the current border to promote tourism.
Whilst sources at the South Korean presidential office did not give further details about the information contained in the drive, they confirmed that the plan was in line with Moon’s “Berlin speech” last year when he outlined his basic approach to the north on a visit to the German capital.
During last year’s presidential election campaign, Moon pledged to merge the two Koreas’ economies in a single market to lay the foundations for unification.
Park Byeong-seug, a South Korean lawmaker from Moon’s ruling Democratic Party of Korea, said the proposal was in line with Moon’s campaign promises.
“The concept of the three belts was one of President Moon’s pledges during the election last year,” Park said.
“The new economic map includes railway links between the two Koreas and China’s northeast stretching all the way to Europe.”
One part of the plan would involve the construction of a rail link starting in Mokpo on the southwest tip of the peninsula, passing through Seoul and Pyongyang and the North’s Special Administrative Region of Sinuiju, before reaching Beijing.
Beijing is likely to welcome Seoul’s proposal as it accords with the core Chinese national interest of enhancing sustainable economic development and boosting the country’s northeastern rust belt.
Cheng Xiaohe, a deputy director at the centre for international strategic studies at Renmin University said Beijing may try to incorporate the plan into its Belt and Road Initiative.
“The northeast has been China’s weakest link and seen poor economic development for years. A rail link could make a real difference to the region,” Cheng said.
Improving the area’s logistics would also benefit China as its access to the open seas in that part of the world is physically blocked by the Korean peninsula and Russia’s far east.
North Korea’s economy is also closely tied to the northeast of China and opening up the reclusive state’s markets could provide new opportunities for the Chinese provinces on its border.
Lu Chao, a research fellow at Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said: “The plan would have a huge impact on China’s northeastern region as it would transform the region as a centre of logistics in East Asia, which could function as a driving force for the rapid economic growth of the region.”
“The northeast is the region with the greatest economic potential in China. A railway connection would bring a myriad of investments from overseas and would help the economy take off.”
[…]
South Korea would have to allow its allies and the UN to mediate any easing of sanctions before it could establish any economic cooperation with the North.
Moon Chung-in, a special foreign affairs and national security adviser in Seoul, said last month that Seoul’s economic incentives would compensate Pyongyang for freezing its missile programme, disclosing its nuclear capacity and allowing international inspections within its borders.

Parallelamente, si muovono anche i Chaebol sudcoreani, tra cui la Hyundai, secondo la CNN:

Hyundai Group said Tuesday [May 8th] that it’s setting up a task force to prepare for the potential restarting of economic projects in North Korea.
The announcement comes shortly after a historic summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un at which they committed themselves to rebuilding ties after years of tensions.
Hyundai Group, which split from the Hyundai Motor Group in 2000, was involved in various business projects in North Korea in the past, including a mountain resort and the Kaesong industrial complex, where North Korean workers made goods for South Korean companies.
“Hyundai needs to be ready when/if the two Koreas agree on terms and inter-Korean economic cooperation resumes,” a company spokesman said.
Hyundai will be closely monitoring the planned summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump that’s expected to take place in the coming weeks, as well as any potential changes to the heavy sanctions in place on North Korea’s economy, the spokesman said.
The Kaesong complex, a symbol of cooperation between the two Koreas, was closed as relations deteriorated in 2016. More than 120 South Korean companies had a presence there, employing tens of thousands of North Koreans and providing a steady stream of foreign currency to the regime in Pyongyang.
Hyundai also previously operated a tourist resort at North Korea’s Mount Kumgang, near the border with South Korea. It was shut down in 2008 after a South Korean tourist was killed by a North Korean soldier.
The company’s ties to North Korea go back to Hyundai’s late founder, Chung Ju-young, who was born there.
Last week, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon said the country’s government was “considering various scenarios” for economic cooperation between the two Koreas.
“The government is preparing response plans to different scenarios in terms of how and how fast to pursue [economic cooperation] and how to procure the resources for it,” he said.
South Korea’s government has allocated about $900 million to fund economic projects that involve both countries this year, according to the minister.

Il governo di Seoul studia e si prepara, secondo la Reuters:

South Korea’s finance minister said on Wednesday [May 2nd] the government was discussing how to finance possible economic projects with North Korea, although any projects with Pyongyang must first be approved by the international community.
“We’re internally carrying out preparations, in terms of what to prepare, and how to cooperate with the international community, and how to finance (possible inter-Korea projects),” Kim Dong-yeon told reporters in Sejong.
“But we need support from the international community and need to watch the (upcoming) summit between the United States and North Korea,” Kim said, without elaborating on specifics of any government financing.
Kim’s comments come after South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Un agreed last Friday on a common goal of a “nuclear free” peninsula, and to “adopt practical steps towards the connection and modernization of the railways and roads”.
Many speculate that the two Koreas will start joint infrastructure projects as soon as international sanctions on North Korea are lifted. Currently, North Korea is under sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council to stop its nuclear weapons and missiles programs.
Kim also said there was a rise in the number of Chinese tourists in March although the services sector has not yet recovered from a drop in such visitors due to tensions between the two countries.
“The number of Chinese tourists is noticeably increasing since March, although it hasn’t recovered to the pre-Thaad level,” Kim said.
Tourist numbers plunged last year after South Korea angered China by deploying a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system that features radar which Beijing believes could be used to penetrate its territory.

Dati positivi per l’economia coreana.

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Corea del Sud, Economia coreana

Il PIL della Corea del Sud registra un +1% nel primo trimestre 2018, sostanzialmente simile alle precedenti previsioni del governo e dell’OECD (+1,1%). E’ quanto emerso dai dati diffusi in questi giorni dalla Banca Centrale coreana. Sempre secondo i dati resi pubblici, le stime di crescita dell’economia coreana per il 2018 prevedono un + 3%. Molto positivo il dato relativo alle esportazioni, che segnano una crescita del 4,4%, confermando la Corea del Sud come paese a fortissima vocazione esportatrice. Aumentano nello specifico le vendite verso l’estero di semiconduttori e di macchinari. Molto confortanti, inoltre, i dati del settore agricolo ed ittico (+6%). Più leggero, ma sempre con segno positivo, l’incremento del settore costruzioni con un + 1,6%.

Corea del Sud rimossa dalla “black list” della UE.

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Attualità coreana, Corea del Sud, Economia coreana, Politica coreana

L’Unione Europea ha rimosso la Corea del Sud dalla “black list” dei paradisi fiscali, sollevando il governo di Seoul da forti preoccupazioni su eventuali misure economiche punitive e danni alla reputazione. E’ quanto comunicato dal Ministero delle Finanze sudcoreano questa mattina.

I Ministri delle Finanze dell’UE hanno concordato di rimuovere la Corea del Sud e altri sette paesi dall’elenco delle giurisdizioni non cooperative ai fini fiscali. Gli altri sette paesi sono Panama, Mongolia, Barbados, Macao, Tunisia, Grenada e gli Emirati Arabi Uniti.

A dicembre, i Ministri delle Finanze UE avevano inserito 17 paesi nella nuova black list, definendo i loro sistemi di tassazione ingiusti e discriminatori. Alcuni benefici fiscali del governo coreano destinati alle società straniere intenzionate ad investire nel paese erano finiti sotto la lente di ingrandimento delle autorità europee.

Con la decisione dell’UE, la Corea del Sud rimarrà in una lista grigia di 55 paesi che saranno monitorati dall’UE per verificare periodicamente la conformità alle nuove regole.

PIL Corea del Sud +1,1% nel primo trimestre 2017.

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Economia coreana

Il Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL) della Corea del Sud nei primi tre mesi dell’anno è cresciuto dell’1,1% rispetto al trimestre precedente, superando le previsioni dello 0,9% rilasciate in aprile. Il tasso di crescita annuale potrebbe dunque attestarsi sul 3% circa per il 2017, ha comunicato oggi la Banca di Corea.

I dati del primo trimestre sono risultati migliori del previsto grazie ai numeri più importanti non solo delle esportazioni ma anche degli investimenti nel settore delle costruzioni a causa del boom del mercato immobiliare.

Le esportazioni sono cresciute del 2,1% nel primo trimestre, superando le previsioni dell’1,9%, grazie alla forte domanda d’oltremare di semiconduttori e macchinari.

L’investimento nelle costruzioni è salito del 6,8% nel primo trimestre dopo essersi contratto dell’1,2% nel quarto trimestre del 2016. Anche in questo caso, i dati superano le attese di 1,5 punti percentuali.

L’investimento in software e in altri settori basati sulla conoscenza ha guadagnato lo 0,3%. La produzione di chip è salita del 4,4% rispetto al trimestre precedente. L‘agricoltura e la produzione di pesca sono cresciuti del 5,9%. Salgono i consumi privati che guadagnano lo 0,4% e sale anche la spesa pubblica dello 0,5% nel primo trimestre.

La quota del risparmio lordo sul PIL è salita al 36,9% dal 35,8% nel quarto trimestre dell’anno precedente. Il tasso d’investimento lordo si attesta al 30,5%, in crescita rispetto al 29,9% nel quarto trimestre 2016.

Economia coreana +2,6% nel 2017

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Corea del Sud, Economia coreana, Servizi per la Corea

Secondo i dati diffusi oggi dal think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI) migliorano le prospettive di crescita per l’economia sudcoreana che, nel 2017, dovrebbe attestarsi a +2,6%, superando di 0,2 punti le precedenti previsioni di dicembre 2016. I dati sono in linea con quelli del governo sudcoreano, della Banca di Corea e del Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Secondo il report della KDI, a determinare un miglioramento sarebbero l’aumento delle esportazioni e degli investimenti.

Per approfondimenti consiglio la lettura dell’articolo di oggi sul quotidiano economico sudcoreano Mael Business a questo link.

 

Economia coreana: soffre export auto verso Cina.

Pubblicato il Pubblicato in Economia coreana

In calo la vendita delle automobili dei due principali costruttori sudcoreani, Hyundai e Kia, nel mercato cinese, diretta conseguenza di quella che sembra ormai delinearsi come una vera e propria guerra commerciale dichiarata dalla Cina contro la Corea del Sud, a seguito della decisione di quest’ultima di implementare nel paese il sistema antimissilistico americano THAAD.

Il numero di unità esportate in Cina si ferma nel mese di marzo a 72.032, con un pesante calo del 52,2% rispetto all’anno precedente. E’ quanto confermato ieri dai dati diffusi da Kia e Hyundai. Al momento sembrano avantaggiarsi aziende come Volkswagen, anche grazie ai notevoli sconti in atto da parte dei distributori locali cinesi dell’azienda tedesca.